A bipartisan coalition of U.S. senators, led by Republican Senator Pete Ricketts and Democratic Senator Chris Coons, recently introduced a new bill that would impose sweeping restrictions on exports of advanced AI chips to China, Russia, and several other countries. If enacted, the measure would bar the U.S. Commerce Department from approving any export license for AI processors that exceed today's permitted performance levels for at least the next 30 months.

Industry analysts say the move would effectively block future products—such as the advanced NVIDIA H200—even if some companies, including the U.S. GPU leader NVIDIA and U.S. chipmaker AMD, have already secured limited approvals for downgraded versions like the H20 and MI308.

Congress Pushes Back Against Potential Policy Loosening

According to Reuters, the White House has been considering whether to allow NVIDIA to export its more powerful H200 GPU to China, a step that could ease revenue pressure on U.S. chipmakers. But opponents within Congress argue that such a move would "seriously deviate" from the export-control framework established since 2022.

The new proposal—known as the SAFE Act (Secure AI and Foundations Export Act)—is widely viewed as Congress's attempt to counterbalance potential softening under the Trump administration. By embedding restrictions into law, lawmakers aim to prevent any administrative flexibility that could undermine Washington's strategy to slow China's access to leading-edge AI hardware.

The SAFE Act mandates that the Commerce Department deny export licenses for any chip performing above existing thresholds for a minimum of 30 months. Without such constraints, critics fear U.S. firms could deploy more capable AI hardware to China in pursuit of near-term profits.

Legislative Timing: One Day After NVIDIA's Closed-Door Meetings in Washington

The bill was introduced on December 4, shortly after NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang met privately with Republican members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee—the committee responsible for U.S. export-control policy. Huang had also met President Trump the day before, acknowledging that export controls were discussed but declining to disclose details.

The SAFE Act also comes just one day after reports emerged that NVIDIA successfully lobbied Congress to delay another proposal, the GAIN AI Act (Guaranteeing AI Innovation and National Access Act), which would have further tightened restrictions.

Implications for NVIDIA, AMD, Google and the Broader U.S. AI Sector

If passed, the bill would bar companies such as NVIDIA, AMD, and Google from exporting all advanced AI accelerators to mainland China. This includes not only leading-edge products like H200, but also any future GPU generation that surpasses today's export-approved configurations.

The U.S. chipmaker AMD confirmed on December 4 that part of its MI308 series has already obtained export approval for China and that it is prepared to pay a 15% fee to the U.S. government for shipments. AMD previously estimated that restrictions on the MI308 could cost the company around USD 800 million in lost revenue.

When asked whether AI is a bubble, AMD CEO Lisa Su stated: "In my view, absolutely not."

Despite U.S. Tightening, China's AI Hardware Ecosystem Accelerates

Washington's tightening grip on AI chip exports has not slowed China's industry as intended. Instead, restrictions have intensified China's shift toward local alternatives.

Since 2024, the U.S. has repeatedly upgraded export controls on AI chips and semiconductor equipment, citing national security. In theory, these measures should severely hinder Chinese firms reliant on high-performance GPUs for AI training and inference. However, multiple industry reports indicate that China's AI sector continues to expand, driven by accelerated domestic R&D and replacement of foreign hardware.

U.S. chipmakers—cut off from the world's largest AI accelerator market—have publicly acknowledged that the restrictions have hurt their business. As Chinese customers pivot to local suppliers, domestic AI chipmakers are rapidly increasing market share. By 2026, analysts project Chinese AI processor vendors could capture around 40% of the domestic market.