The global pure-play semiconductor foundry industry is expected to generate $165 billion in revenue in 2025, marking a 17% year-over-year increase, according to Counterpoint Research's latest Quarterly Foundry Market Update. This growth reflects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12% between 2021 and 2025, primarily fueled by strong demand for AI and high-performance computing (HPC) chips.

Advanced process nodes—particularly 7nm and below—will be the key growth drivers, accounting for more than 56% of total foundry revenue in 2025. Among these, the 3nm node is forecast to see revenue surge by over 600% year-over-year to reach approximately $30 billion, while the 5nm and 4nm nodes are expected to generate over $40 billion. This momentum is being driven by next-gen AI smartphones, NPU-powered AI PCs, and expanding demand for AI ASICs, GPUs, and HPC applications.

Counterpoint Senior Analyst William Li noted that although the 2nm node will contribute only 1% of total revenue in 2025, its strategic value is significant. As TSMC expands 2nm capacity in Taiwan, the node is projected to account for over 10% of TSMC's revenue by 2027. Li expects 2nm to become one of the most enduring and strategically important nodes in the coming years, driven by a shift from cloud to edge computing.

Outside of cutting-edge nodes, the 20nm to 12nm segment is expected to remain stable, contributing around 7% of total industry revenue. Meanwhile, mature nodes (28nm and above) are forecast to see their share drop from 54% in 2021 to 36% in 2025. However, 28nm remains a bright spot, projected to grow at a 5% CAGR as some legacy applications transition to more advanced technologies.

TSMC remains the dominant leader in advanced nodes, with Samsung and Intel actively expanding their presence. Foundries such as UMC, GlobalFoundries, and SMIC continue to see steady demand in the mature node space, even if growth is slower in comparison.

Beyond front-end process advancements—such as High-NA EUV lithography—the backend is also seeing significant innovation. Developments in HBM integration and chiplet packaging are opening up new revenue streams and performance improvements for the semiconductor ecosystem.

Overall, the 2025 outlook underscores the continued shift toward advanced manufacturing and packaging technologies as the core engines of growth in the global foundry sector.